There ’s no end in hatful to the unholy - search irruption at Mount Mayon , the Filipino volcano that ’s been spewing a admixture of ash tree and lava for two weeks . This workweek , after Mayonratcheted thing upwith improbable ash tree clouds and half - mile - high lava fountains , volcanologists placed it onalert level 4 out of 5 — meaning a “ hazardous bang ” could be imminent .
But , hold on a Securities and Exchange Commission . If the site pictured above does n’t already constitute a hazardous eruption , then what on Earth does ? I turned to volcanologists for result . Those answers become out to be complex .
“ This is all really a hazardous eruption,”Janine Krippner , a volcanologist at Concord University , told Earther . She explain that if the same eruption was occur in a place with no masses , it would n’t necessarily be hazardous . “ Hazards depend on the activity , and they depend on multitude . ”
That aver , the eruption at Mount Mayon could certainly get more wild than it already is .
Right now , the mountain is seeinglava fountains and ash plumesreaching about 500 meters ( 1640 feet ) above the crater . It ’s also experiencing dangerous pyroclastic period — ultra - raging plumes of volcanic ash and rock that race descent , sometimes at hundreds of sea mile per hour . essentially , nightmare avalanche . This is all pretty standard behavior for the most active vent in the Philippines .
“ This is kind of a baseline eructation for Mayon and it hap frequently , ” Krippner said .
thing could go forward this way for a while — months , even . Or , Mayon could crank it up a nick , with more lava erupting from the volcanic crater , taller plumes that deposit ash tree over a wide-eyed expanse , and more pyroclastic flows . The volcano could also go from erupting effusively — as it ’s mostly doing now — to erupting more explosively .
“ That would shift it from beautiful lava fountaining to larger ash tree plumes , ” Krippner explained .
Eruptions can become explosive for a diverseness of reasons , ranging from a buildup of imperativeness within the volcano to a change in the typography of the magma itself . Thicker magmas — those with a higher silica subject — are more potential to catch fire explosively when trapped accelerator pedal bubble examine to get off .
These changes occur because the magma the volcano is draw from is n’t one giving , homogeneous body — its strong-arm and chemical properties can develop over clip , in twist affecting the explosiveness of the eruptions .
If Mount Mayon ’s eruption becomes more volatile , we could start seeing much larger ash plume — the vent ’s deadliest irruption , in 1814,is reportedto have flung ash all the way into the stratosphere 11 miles up — and more pyroclastic flow . Krippner noted that while most of the pyroclastic menstruation witness so far are the result of chunk of recently - solidified lava breaking away and tumbling down the mountainside , expectant ash tree plumes can create pyroclastic flows all on their own , when fine , rocky cloth link with the cloud collapse and races downhill .
Enormous mudslide , also call lahars , are another fear when the ash tree and rocks pack up on the slopes of a volcano encounter a heavy rainstorm .
“ Then all that ash can go into river , where you may create this cement - comparable slurry that can pick up boulders , Sir Herbert Beerbohm Tree , and household , ” Erik Klemetti , a volcanologist at Denison University , told Earther . Such flows can be incredibly dangerous and troubled in their own right , traveling all the path to the sea , concord to Krippner .
Klemetti note that after the tremendous Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 , the region see “ a honorable decennary worth of mudflows . ” While the irruption at Mount Mayon is still much , much smaller than that irruption , lahar could be a long - term concern .
Filipino federal agency are used to eruption like this , and they ’ve exact necessary precautions , including denominate an 8 km ( 5 mile ) danger zone around the vent . As of Friday , some 78,000 villagers had been evacuate , according to theAssociated Press .
Meanwhile , thePhilippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismologycontinues to take Mount Mayon ’s vitals . Volcanologists have a range of tools at their disposal , frequently monitoring seismal activity , gasoline escape from the vent , the chemistry of fluid come out , and even slight change in the volcano ’s shape , to check what ’ll happen next .
“ All of these data are giving one tiny flake of the level , ” Krippner enunciate . “ Mixing that with knowledge of how that particular volcano erupts , plus knowing the history of the specific volcano , plus all of their experience , can give an indication of the probability of what the vent is going to do . ”
Of course , they can also merely use their eyes .
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